November 30, 2020

Pennsylvania COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard Update for Nov. 20 - Nov. 26

 Case Increases Top 41,000; Percent Positivity at 11.7% and 66 Counties with Substantial Transmission
Harrisburg, PA – Governor Tom Wolf and Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine today released a weekly status update detailing the state’s mitigation efforts based on the COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard, highlighting a seven-day case increase of 41,424 cases, statewide percent positivity of 11.7%, and 66 of 67 counties with substantial transmission status. 
The update includes the following:
  • Level of community transmission as a basis for the recommendations for Pre-K to 12 schools to determine instructional models.
  • Data on cases among 5-18-year-olds.
  • Cases that reported visiting a business among potential locations where exposures may have occurred.
  • Updated travel recommendations.
The dashboard is designed to provide early warning signs of factors that affect the state’s mitigation efforts. The data available on the early warning monitoring dashboard includes week-over-week case differences, incidence rates, test percent-positivity, and rates of hospitalizations, ventilations and emergency room visits tied to COVID-19. This week’s update compares the period of November 20 – November 26 to the previous seven days, November 13 – November 19.
“Pennsylvania continues to trend in the wrong direction as COVID-19 continues to spread,” Gov. Wolf said. “Last week, we took a number of mitigation steps designed to reverse this trend and help protect Pennsylvanians. We need all Pennsylvanians to follow these measures as part of their collective responsibility to protect one another. I remain convinced that by working together Pennsylvanians can stop the spread of this virus.”
As of Thursday, November 26, the state has seen a seven-day case increase of 41,424 cases; the previous seven-day increase was 37,380 cases, indicating 4,044 more new cases across the state over the past week compared to the previous week.
The statewide percent-positivity went up to 11.7% from 11.1% last week. Every county in the state has a concerning percent positivity above five percent except for one county, Forest County at 3.6 percent. This includes five counties (Juniata, Mifflin, Bedford, Somerset and Tioga) with percent positivity above 20 percent.
“This week’s data, and the one week change in the rate of hospitalizations and ventilator use is a reminder to us all of our role in protecting our health care system,” Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said. “Latest models continue to indicate very concerning trends for our hospital availability and ICU bed availability. We know COVID-19 does not discriminate and is affecting every county in the commonwealth. It is affecting all Pennsylvanians, no matter your race, ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status or whether you live a rural, suburban or urban area.”
Community Transmission
As of Friday’s data, Adams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bradford, Bucks, Butler, Cambria, Carbon, Centre, Chester, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Crawford, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Elk, Erie, Fayette, Forest, Franklin, Fulton, Greene, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lebanon, Lehigh, Luzerne, Lycoming, McKean, Mercer, Mifflin, Monroe, Montgomery, Montour, Northampton, Northumberland, Perry, Philadelphia, Pike, Potter, Schuylkill, Snyder, Somerset, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Westmoreland, Wyoming, and York counties were in the substantial level of community transmission.
For the week ending November 26, one county was in the low level of transmission and 66 counties were in the substantial level of transmission: Cameron.
Cases Among 5-18-Year-Olds
The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of statewide cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.
Throughout the pandemic, there have been 27,954 total cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds. Of that total, 4,212 occurred between November 20 – November 26. For the week of November 13 – November 19, there were 3,937 cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.
Business Visits
The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of individuals who responded to case investigators that they spent time at business establishments (restaurants, bars, gym/fitness centers, salon/barbershops) and at mass gatherings 14 days prior to the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.
It is important to note that due to the recent number of cases, the department is prioritizing case investigations. In addition to the need for people to answer the call, the significant number of cases helps contribute to the low percentages in contact tracing data. All of this reinforces the need for Pennsylvanians to take steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Of the 44,525 confirmed cases reported between November 15 and November 21, 7 percent (3,038) provided an answer to the question as to whether they spent time at a business establishment.
Of those who did provide an answer, 0.9 percent, or 392, answered yes, they visited a business establishment 14 days prior to onset of symptoms:
  • 51 percent (200) of those who said yes reported going to a restaurant;
  • 24.5 percent (96) of those who said yes reported going to some other business establishment;
  • 15 percent (60) of those who said yes reported going to a bar;
  • 10 percent (39) of those who said yes reported going to a gym/fitness center; and
  • 8 percent (31) of those who said yes reported going to a salon/barbershop.
Of the 44,525 confirmed cases, 6.9 percent (3,063) answered the question as to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event. Of the 6.9 percent, 13 percent (398) answered yes to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event 14 days prior to onset of symptoms.
Compared to data reported on November 23, this week’s data indicated an increase for people who reported going to a restaurant (51 percent vs. 48 percent last week), going to a salon/barbershop (8 percent vs. 7 percent last week), and slight increases for those going to some other business (24.5 percent vs. 24 percent last week) and going to a bar (15.3 percent vs. 15 percent last week). The data saw a decrease for people who reported going to a gym/fitness center (10 percent vs. 14 percent last week). The number of those who attended a mass gathering or other large event decreased to 13 percent from 16.3 percent last week.
The numbers above highlight business settings and mass gatherings as possible sites for transmission. With less than half of those asked about what types of businesses they visited or if they attended a mass gathering responding to the question, the department is reminding Pennsylvanians that it is essential that people answer the phone when case investigators call and to provide full and complete information to these clinical professionals.
Travel Recommendations
This week, the Department of Health provided an updated travel order requiring anyone over the age of 11 who visits from another state to provide evidence of a negative COVID-19 test or place themselves in a travel quarantine for 14 days upon entering Pennsylvania.
This order, which took effect on Wednesday, November 25, does not apply to people who commute to and from another state for work or medical treatment, those who left the state for less than 24 hours, and those complying with a court order, including child custody. 
It is important that people understand that this Order is in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania. A concerning number of recent cases have been linked to travel, and if people are going to travel, we need them to take steps to protect themselves, their loved ones and their community, and that involves having either a negative test, or placing themselves in a travel quarantine.
Gov. Wolf continues to prioritize the health and safety of all Pennsylvanians through the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvanians should continue to take actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19, regardless of in what county they live. This includes wearing a mask or face covering anytime they are in public. COVID-19 has been shown to spread easily in the air and contagious carriers can be asymptomatic.